At Osmosis, we spend our time studying resource efficiency.
Our investment process is built around identifying companies that generate more economic output per unit of resource consumed. We call this our Model of Resource Efficiency (MoRE), and it underpins our approach to investing in global equities.
Ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, we asked a different question:
Could the same principles that help evaluate long-term success in business also help explain success in international football?
To explore the idea, we analysed all 48 World Cup nations using a systematic framework inspired by our investment research. We assessed each team across five factors:
- Talent Pool & Depth
- Recent Momentum
- Historical Pedigree
- Economic Infrastructure
- Squad Cohort Quality
These factors were combined into a composite score and used to run 10,000 tournament simulations. The intention was not a prediction model, but to provide a framework for understanding how nations convert resources into football performance.
While the model does identify a tournament favourite, the most distinctive findings emerged elsewhere – in the nations that appeared unusually efficient, undervalued or misunderstood relative to conventional expectations.
Looking Beyond Absolute Strength
One finding stood out above all others: the nations that consistently achieved more with fewer resources.
Just as Osmosis evaluates how effectively companies convert inputs into outputs, we developed a football equivalent called Resource Efficiency Alpha (RE-Alpha). The metric compares football performance indicators – such as talent, historical success and recent momentum – against economic inputs including GDP per capita and federation budgets.
The results challenged some common assumptions.
Senegal: The Most Resource-Efficient Nation
Senegal achieved the highest RE-Alpha score in the tournament at 5.23. Despite operating with one of the smallest football budgets among major contenders, the country consistently delivers high-level international performances. The model described Senegal as producing “Ferrari results on a Fiat budget.”
Morocco: Success That May Not Be Accidental
Morocco ranked among the strongest efficiency stories in the field with an RE-Alpha score of 4.12. Following its historic 2022 World Cup semi-final run, the model suggests that Morocco’s success is supported by underlying structural strengths rather than a one-off tournament outcome. Strong recent form and a positive trajectory signal further reinforced its ranking.
Brazil: The Largest Gap Between Model and Market Expectations
One of the most notable findings was Brazil. While already viewed as a leading contender, the model identified Brazil as the tournament’s most underappreciated major nation relative to market expectations. The gap between the model’s assessment and prevailing expectations was larger than for any other serious contender.
England: A Lesson in Historical Bias
The research also highlighted how narratives can influence perception. After applying a time-decay methodology to historical World Cup victories, England emerged as the model’s most expensive favourite relative to its score. The model deliberately gives greater weight to recent performance than achievements from several decades ago – a principle that has clear parallels in investing.
The USA: Resources Alone Are Not Enough
Perhaps the clearest illustration of the efficiency concept came from the United States. Despite possessing the highest economic inputs in the tournament, the USA generated one of the lowest RE-Alpha scores. In other words, abundant resources do not automatically translate into superior outcomes.
What We Learned
The exercise reinforced a principle that sits at the heart of the Osmosis investment philosophy. Success is not simply about scale, wealth or resources.
Whether analysing companies or football nations, what often matters most is the ability to convert available resources into consistent, repeatable outcomes. Some of the most interesting opportunities can be found in organisations that quietly do more with less.
Note: This campaign is for illustrative and discussion purposes only, and most importantly, for fun! It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or betting guidance. Past tournament results are not a reliable indicator of future results.